http://www.gftforex.com/resources/analysis/analyst.asp?analyst=Kathy%20LienThe latest market commentary from Kathy Lien, Director of Research, GFT (c) 2009, GFT. All rights reserved.5The resonance of the New Year is starting to show its true colors at the start of the first full trading-week this year. The Dow finished a volatile day lower, in some ways ruining the sense of stability that pervaded in last week’s market. Volatility in equity prices was complemented by some extreme moves in the fx markets. Looking at today’s biggest percentage movers we can see the sheer magnitude of price action today, with some moves extending to more than 3.0%. The dollar in particular was heavily mixed across the board. We have seen some substantial gains against the euro and yen, in conjunction with weakness against the pound and commodity currencies. Today’s trading was a truly unorganized and unpredictable force.http://www.gftforex.com/analysis/398/volatility-returns-to-the-currency-marketsMon, 05 Jan 2009 16:40:52 GMTToday’s trading comes across as mostly a denial of facts. Perhaps it is the jubilation that comes with the start of a New Year, or the low volume at the end of a holiday week, but today’s numbers certainly cast a concerning picture on an already weakened economy. Price action in the dollar is also equally perplexing, as the currency posts broad gains in today’s market. However, we warn that the facts in the marketplace will inevitably catch up with those who are once again convinced that the economy has hit the bottom. http://www.gftforex.com/analysis/397/an-unfounded-rally-to-start-the-new-yearFri, 02 Jan 2009 17:32:02 GMTWhat to expect from a fundamental and technical basis for the US dollar, Euro, British pound, Japanese Yen and other major currencies in the year ahead. http://www.gftforex.com/analysis/391/2009-currency-market-outlookWed, 31 Dec 2008 12:28:49 GMTThe US dollar sold off modestly today on stronger European economic data and weaker US data. The dollar’s weakness was seen against every major currency except for the Canadian dollar which followed oil prices lower. Trading remains extremely quiet in the foreign exchange market and any moves that we have seen thus far are still nominal. The only currency pair that is really moving is the EUR/USD, but thin liquidity could be exacerbating the pair’s trading ranges. http://www.gftforex.com/analysis/390/economic-data-hits-record-lowTue, 30 Dec 2008 16:32:25 GMTWith no US economic data on the calendar today, the dollar weakened against every major currency except for the British pound. Trading continues to be very thin with commodities being the only products that are really moving. The tensions in the Middle East have driven oil and gold prices higher. US stocks also gave back Friday’s gains and remained contained within its week long trading range. http://www.gftforex.com/analysis/389/us-dollar-run-on-the-dollarMon, 29 Dec 2008 17:25:02 GMTIt has been an exceptionally active year in the foreign exchange market as currency volatilities hit record highs. In the first half of the year, everyone was worried about how much further the dollar would fall but in the second half of the year the concern became how much further the dollar would rise. More specifically, after hitting a record low against the Euro in the second quarter, the US dollar surged to a 2 year high against the currency in the beginning of the fourth quarter. From trough to peak, the dollar index rose more than 23 percent in 2008. http://www.gftforex.com/analysis/388/us-dollar-2009-forecastFri, 26 Dec 2008 17:38:54 GMTThin market conditions continue to dominate in the currency market on the eve before Christmas. Trading ranges for all of the major currency pairs have been relatively narrow, especially when compared to the large swings that have been characteristic of the third and fourth quarters of 2008. There were both upside and downside surprises in this morning’s economic data but even the upside surprises were numbers that reflected a contraction in US economic activity. This has fueled the mild sell-off in the greenback that began at the European open. http://www.gftforex.com/analysis/387/the-good-news-and-bad-news-on-christmas-eveWed, 24 Dec 2008 12:17:43 GMTThe US dollar appears to be unfazed by this morning’s mixed economic reports. Thin trading conditions continue to dominate in the currency market, leading to inconsistent trading for the US dollar. The greenback strengthened against the Japanese Yen and British pound but weakened against the Euro. The latest reports on the US economy were weak but not as weak as the market had expected. There was the potential for really bad numbers and the fact that they did not materialize has actually helped the dollar. http://www.gftforex.com/analysis/386/us-dollar-unfazed-by-economic-dataTue, 23 Dec 2008 17:35:37 GMTIt is the first trading day of what is typically the least liquid period in the financial markets. As a result, there was no consistent trading pattern in the US dollar today. The greenback weakened against the Euro but gained strength against the British pound and Japanese Yen. We still believe that the US dollar has hit a top and could be at the cusp of a major reversal. The EUR/USD’s resilience to the US stock market sell-off indicates that we are finally seeing the weak outlook for the US economy reflected in the weakness of the US dollar. In 2009, the greenback may no longer be the market’s safe haven currency of choice as yields on Treasury bills sit at zero to negative levels. http://www.gftforex.com/analysis/385/what-to-expect-before-new-yearsMon, 22 Dec 2008 17:29:04 GMTIt has been an extremely volatile week in the currency market. On Monday, the EUR/USD was trading at 1.3364 and shortly after the European open on Thursday it hit a high above 1.47. However since then it has reversed violently to end the week back at 1.39. This type of price action is characteristic of an illiquid market that is uncertain about how to react to the drastic measures taken by central banks around the world. There was no US economic data released today, but there are reports that the White House has given $17B in loans to the Big 3 automakers. The US dollar strengthened against all of the major currencies except for the Japanese Yen. Next week is a lightened trading week with the Christmas holiday. US economic data is therefore jammed into Tuesday and Wednesday. We expect the final figures for third quarter GDP, housing market numbers, personal income, personal spending and durable goods next week. The data should continue to reflect the weakness of the US economy. http://www.gftforex.com/analysis/383/the-basics-of-quantitative-easingFri, 19 Dec 2008 23:51:36 GMT